Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.128385 0.150642 0.175175 0.204162 0.237411 0.274293 0.318236
2025-12-14 0.086673 0.115183 0.150174 0.195991 0.254074 0.324901 0.417409
2025-12-21 0.064976 0.094952 0.134848 0.191211 0.268044 0.368271 0.507890
2025-12-28 0.053361 0.084350 0.128426 0.194632 0.290248 0.421757 0.614333
2026-01-04 0.045938 0.077767 0.125714 0.201612 0.316702 0.482151 0.734650
2026-01-11 0.039636 0.071469 0.122007 0.205892 0.338767 0.537419 0.851806
2026-01-18 0.034168 0.065387 0.117447 0.207739 0.356612 0.587265 0.964478
2026-01-25 0.029452 0.059660 0.112434 0.207828 0.371094 0.632528 1.073166
2026-02-01 0.025179 0.053913 0.106433 0.205213 0.380401 0.669814 1.171634
2026-02-08 0.021545 0.048692 0.100529 0.201810 0.387618 0.703761 1.266720
2026-02-15 0.017996 0.042969 0.092804 0.193961 0.385894 0.722100 1.336640
2026-02-22 0.016935 0.042262 0.094620 0.204163 0.417594 0.800078 1.513598
2026-03-01 0.014316 0.037712 0.088200 0.197767 0.418148 0.823979 1.599592
2026-03-08 0.012078 0.033602 0.082093 0.191220 0.417720 0.846095 1.684346
2026-03-15 0.010342 0.030336 0.077283 0.186671 0.420577 0.874224 1.781804
2026-03-22 0.009388 0.028851 0.076237 0.190030 0.439694 0.934468 1.943242
2026-03-29 0.008755 0.028086 0.076746 0.196862 0.466619 1.011739 2.142248
2026-04-05 0.008034 0.026933 0.076144 0.201051 0.488232 1.080004 2.328293
2026-04-12 0.007270 0.025497 0.074618 0.202859 0.504743 1.139087 2.500037
2026-04-19 0.006518 0.023927 0.072501 0.202946 0.517326 1.190861 2.660297
2026-04-26 0.005746 0.022120 0.069476 0.200387 0.523562 1.229715 2.796668
2026-05-03 0.005042 0.020367 0.066313 0.197056 0.527602 1.264065 2.925793
2026-05-10 0.004284 0.018235 0.061723 0.189375 0.520431 1.273452 3.002856